Climate change evidence? Marsh edges, dying trees

At a recent Greater Lewes Foundation meeting, sea level rise and climate change came to the fore. Nothing surprising there. We hear about both topics a lot. Part of the discussion focused on the City of Lewes and steps the city is taking to be prepared in the face of the sea’s steady advance.

I tend to be mouthy. No surprise there either. And skeptical. Comes with being a journalist.

I said that if we really want to get the public engaged in taking steps to address climate change and sea level rise, we have to show them evidence. I had my Missouri hat on. “Show me,” I said.

I’ve lived in Lewes for 42 years. I’ve watched and photographed lots of storms. I’ve watched storm-driven high tides flood over Savannah Road on Lewes Beach through all those years; usually three or four storms a year do that. I’ve watched Cedar Avenue flood. But I don’t see the flooding getting any worse. I’ve never seen Delaware Bay come up over the dunes. We’re right on the edge of the sea and Delaware Bay. Where is it getting worse? I realize geologic time moves slower than a turtle, and 40 years isn’t that long but still ... .

One person suggested that the frequency and intensity of storms seem to be increasing, but the discussion didn’t go much further.

So I decided to continue my inquiry. I spoke last week with Evelyn Maurmeyer. Evelyn has been associated with University of Delaware’s College of Earth, Ocean and Environment - in all of its various iterations since it started as the College of Marine Studies - for many years. She started out at the university as a geology student in 1972 and went on to earn a doctorate degree in that discipline. Now she operates a consulting firm: Coastal and Estuarine Research. Part of the consulting work Evelyn does involves delineating wetlands - where they begin and where they end relative, usually, to higher ground.

“I’ve seen changes over the past 30 years. It’s more evident if I redelineate wetlands that I looked at 20 or 30 years ago,” said Evelyn. “Outside my office window I can see upland hummocks in the Great Marsh. The pines and the oaks on those hummocks are dying and being replaced by marsh grass. Saltwater intrusion. On Angola Neck near Camp Arrowhead it’s evident in forests adjacent to marshes and all around the Inland Bays. I did work in the 1980s in the Bethany Beach area adjacent to the Salt Pond. The pine forest that was there is dying now, and I assume it’s because of sea level rise and its proximity to the Salt Pond.”

But, a dissenter

All that said, Evelyn said she’s a dissenter when it comes to laying the blame for sea level rise on human activity.

“I’m not seeing a rapid acceleration in sea level from 30 years ago. I guess in part we can attribute some of it to human activity, but I don’t know how much. As a geologist, I know that sea level has been higher than it is now, and it’s been lower. And that’s over millions of years, before there was human activity.”

I mentioned my understanding that we have been coming out of the last ice age for about 10,000 years, and with that gradual warming has come sea level rise. “Yes, there have been ice ages throughout geological history. I would say it appears that since the industrial revolution there has been some impact. But for the most part, I think natural forces are continuing as they have been for thousands of years and man’s activity is probably playing a role, but I just don’t know how much. The predictions over the past 30 years of the sea rising quickly haven’t come true.”

Evelyn said she does think we have to be better prepared for storms regardless. “Orrin Pilkey, the Carolina scientist involved with extensive erosion studies, said that when it comes to erosion, if there is no perception, there is no erosion. But the more development in coastal and low-lying areas - like we’re seeing here along the Sussex coast - the more storms and erosion get on the radar screen.”

Is rising sea level threatening drinking water supplies in Lewes? If a monitoring well in Stango Park in Lewes - between Delaware Bay and the town well field just beyond Cape Henlopen High School - is any indication, the answer is no.

Lewes Board of Public Works General Manager Darrin Gordon said this week that water from the well is tested about every two years.

He said nothing in the test results over the past several years indicates any problem with saltwater intrusion. “The results are always fairly static,” he said.

In the meantime - or should that be in geological time - coastal real estate sales in Sussex County aren’t taking any noticeable climate change hit.